[淑媛]Buffet 認為對華爾街來說財政的危機衰退了

Buffett Says Credit Crisis Ebbs for Wall Street Firms (Update3)

By Josh P. Hamilton and Betty Liu

May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said the global credit crunch has eased for bankers and the Federal Reserve probably averted more failures by helping to rescue Bear Stearns Cos.

Warrant Buffett，Berkshire Hathaway Inc.的執行長認為全球性的財政困難對銀行和聯邦儲備銀行來說已經舒緩了，藉由幫助Bear Stearns它們避免了更多的失敗。


``The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over,'' Buffett said today on Bloomberg Television. ``In terms of people with individual mortgages, there's a lot of pain left to come.'' Buffett was interviewed before the Omaha, Nebraska-based company's annual meeting, attended by about 31,000 people.

“對華爾街來說最糟的已經過去，但就有個人財產抵押的人來說，還有很多痛苦等著他們”Buffet 今天在Omaha, Nebraska-based company有31,000人出席的年會之前在Bloomberg 上發表這樣的看法。

Buffett, the world's richest man according to Forbes magazine, said the Fed acted properly when it arranged a $2.4 billion bailout in March of New York-based Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase & Co. The billionaire said he turned down the opportunity because he lacked enough capital and time to grasp the situation. More failures and wider panic may have resulted if the regulators didn't halt the run on Bear Stearns, he said.

Buffet，全球最富有的人，認為聯邦銀行適當地在三月時，藉由JPMorgan Chase & Co.提供了$2.4 billion的財政援助了New York-based Bear Stearns。Buffet 說他拒絕了這個幫助New York-based Bear Stearns的機會，因為他當時缺乏足夠的資金及時間去掌握情況。而如果不是由這樣的援助暫時止住了Bear Stearns的情形，可能會發生更多的恐慌和失敗。

``The worry was that there would be contagion; it was a very real worry,'' Buffett said. ``If Bear Stearns had gone, the next day, somebody else would have gone. It could've been a very, very, very chaotic situation.''

“擔心害怕的情緒是會擴散的，這真的是非常令人憂慮的一件事” Buffet說。“如果Bear Stearns不存在了，那麼明天，其他人就有可能不存在了。如此一來，清況將會變得非常混亂。”

Too Big for Buffett

``As I understand it, Bear Stearns had $65 billion due on Monday and I didn't have $65 billion,'' Buffett said. ``I couldn't get my mind around that situation in the required time.'' New York-based JPMorgan was the right buyer for Bear Stearns, he added.

“就我所知，Bear Stearns在星期一的時候價值$65 billion，而我並沒有這麼多”Buffet說。“我無法在必須的時間內清楚理解當時的情形” JPMorgan在當時對於Bear Stearns來說是正確的買家。

Berkshire had about $35 billion in cash as of March 31, according to a regulatory filing yesterday.

根據檔案，Berkshire在3/31擁有大約$35 billion的現金。

JPMorgan agreed in mid-March to acquire Bear Stearns, once the fifth-biggest U.S. securities firm, after customers grew concerned about the company's health and pulled out their money, leaving Bear Stearns short on cash. JPMorgan, which got financial support from the Federal Reserve, raised the purchase price a week later to $10 a share from $2 to mollify Bear Stearns shareholders who said they weren't getting enough.

在投資者開始擔憂Bear Stearns的經營狀況並紛紛將資金撤出，造成Bear Stearns現金短缺後，JPMorgan在三月中時答應買下曾是全美第五大證券公司的Bear Steams。JPMorgan為了平息投資者對於投入的資金將全部損失的擔憂，藉由聯邦銀行提供財務上的幫助，拉高購買的價格，從每股$2提高到每股$10。

The 24-company KBW Bank Index has advanced 14 percent since the Bear Stearns bailout was announced in March, and the 11- company Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index has climbed 30 percent.

在三月Bear Stearns得到財政援助的消息公佈了之後24家公司的KBW Bank Index增加了14%，且11家公司的Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index上升了30%。

Credit Losses

In a question-and-answer session at the shareholder meeting, Buffett said that from a risk perspective, some banks got ``too big to manage.''

在股東會議上，Buffet說由風險透視，一些銀行規模太大以致於無法評估。

The world's biggest banks and investment firms have recorded more than $300 billion of losses and writedowns tied to mortgages, bonds and loans.

世界上最大的銀行和投資公司記錄了多於$300 billion的損失以及抵押品、債券和貸款的資產減損。

Berkshire's own investment in derivative contracts recovered between $500 million and $600 million of lost value since the end of March, Buffett said. Berkshire said yesterday the value of the investments had declined by $1.7 billion in the first quarter. The entire company's quarterly profit plunged 64 percent to $940 million.

Berkshire投資的衍生品恢復了$500 million到 $600 million的價值損失。Berkshire的投資的價值在第一季減少了$1.7 billion，而整個公司的季營收降為$940 million是原本的64%。

Buffett is scheduled to embark on a four-city European trip this month to scout potential acquisitions, including family- owned companies. He has been investing in China, Israel and the U.K. to spur profit growth after saying that U.S. investments meeting his criteria have become scarce.

Buffetm預計到歐洲去尋找有增值潛力的公司。在他認為美國能符合他標準的投資已越來越少後，他已在中國、以色列、英國進行投資來增加盈利。

International Earnings

``Over time we'd like to develop more international earnings,'' Buffett said. ``If it's a $2 billion deal, fine; if it's a $20 billion dollar deal, fine.''

“隨著時間，我們想開發更多國際盈利，如果這是一筆$2 billion的交易，那很好；若這是一筆$20 billion的交易，那也很好。”

Buffett, who made his first non-U.S. acquisition in 2006, paying $4 billion for 80 percent of Israel-based Iscar Metalworking Cos., said he can't predict the location of the next company Berkshire will acquire.

Buffet藉由支付$4 billion買下 80% Israel-based Iscar Metalworking Cos，在2006獲得第一筆非在美國投資的盈利。並且Buffet說他無法預期下個Berkshire會投資的公司將在哪裡。

``They can come from Europe, they can come from the United States, you just never know,'' he said. ``Somebody, someplace is going to have a situation where we fit. They're going to call me; I want to make sure I'm on their radar screen.''

“機會可能來自於歐洲、可能來自於美國。某時某地將會出現我們需要的機會，而當機會降臨的時候，我想確定我已經把握住那個瞬間。”

Buffett said during the meeting he'd like to buy businesses in India and China, and that he wanted to acquire one or two non- U.S. companies in the next three years. He is looking as competition forces down insurance rates in the U.S. for Berkshire, which typically gets about half its profit from insurance units including National Indemnity, General Re Corp. and Geico Corp.

Buffet在會議中說到他在未來三年中想買一些在中國及印度的企業，並投資一、二家非美國的公司。Berkshire，有一半的保險上收入來自於National Indemnity, General Re Corp. and Geico Corp.，而在競爭壓力之下保險率將要被迫降低。

The U.S. dollar will keep weakening and Buffett feels ``no need to hedge'' against currency risk when buying large companies outside the U.S., he said.

雖然美元持續弱勢，但Buffet認為這對購買美國以外的公司並不構成障礙。

Last Updated: May 3, 2008 18:43 EDT

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